Economy

Is The Us Economy, Europe Must Choose

Energy, technological challenges, economic model… “In 2023, Europe will have to answer several difficult questions” on the economic level, estimates Dominique Seux, deputy director of Les Echos and member of the Association for the support of the principles of democracy. humanist (ASPDH). According to him, “the challenges are considerable”, even if “for sixty-five years, Europe has always found new solutions when the emergency calls for it”.

The great and beautiful political lesson of 2022, if we look at the planet, is that demagoguery does not always work and that autocracies are more fragile than people say. Vladimir Putin is in trouble in Ukraine, the Iranian regime is shaken by the women’s revolt and the Chinese Xi Jinping is shaken by his aberrant zero Covid strategy. Jair Bolsonaro was beaten in Brazil and Donald Trump didn’t really win in the United States.

All this is encouraging for the camp of the democracies. In this oh so unstable universe, Europe has made a remarkable political choice: that of clarity, with strong support for Ukraine , a country which until then had been rather foreign to it, it must be admitted. The Twenty-Seven deliver weapons to kyiv and sanction Moscow, slowly and with difficulty, but finally they do it and remain united. So much for politics.

Possible recession

And the economy then? Alas, the situation is less favorable for the Old Continent. Main victim of the rise in energy prices because it is forced to import almost all the fossil fuels it consumes, it is undermined by previous inflation which is amplified and which becomes structural. A recession is possible in the euro zone, while the United States plays more to scare itself than it really fears it.

That’s not all: the mercantilist model on which Germany has built its growth for twenty years – cheap Russian gas and the craving for the Chinese market – is crumbling when borders rise everywhere and a block logic. As for France, with rising interest rates for the State, it is coming to the end of the “whatever the cost” that it has pulled to the limit and until it is more thirsty.

What place for Europe?

In 2023, Europe will therefore have to answer several difficult questions. The first: what place does it want in the “bi-globalization” that is taking place on technologies, with the United States and China face-to-face? She dreams of an in-between, which would suit her best. But neutrality is not possible for long and the proximity to Washington is the strongest, even if Joe Biden has to pay the price.

The second question relates to energy. The inability of the Twenty-Seven to find common solutions for group purchases of gas is a problem. But the most serious thing is that we will run out of gas next winter: the Russian tap will be closed and the United States have already warned us that they are at their maximum LNG deliveries. What to do ? No one knows. We are obsessed with the price , the priority will be to have enough gas!

Considerable challenges

The third is the most important. What economic model will Europe defend in the years to come? Since 1957, free trade has been its compass, and it has brought the efficiency of competition and real gains in purchasing power – with products imported from China. And now Washington chooses protectionism. Europe will not have a choice there either, it will have to evolve so as not to be the “idiot of the global village”.

Smith

Tricare west is a global news publication that tells the stories you want to know.

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